Gold & SP 500 Futures Update 8/16/26
Gold & SP 500 Futures
The charts are key to this analysis.
Gold
Gold is now trading in the December contract and like August it has held above 38.2% based on its continuation chart keeping the longer term trend positive. This level is 3934.00 and it is also a major Gann square. After sitting above this level for over a month it has hit the first resistance of 23.6% at 4430.00 and this will be the key level for the week.
Use 4430.00 as the swing point for the week.
Above it, the short term target is 38.2% back to the contract high at 4700.00, this is the level that needs to be taken out to turn the short term trend positive too. The longer term target area is the 5048.50 major Gann square and 61.8% of the same move at 5097.00. Before then there is one major Gann square to look for resistance and then use as the swing point when closed above at 4864.00.
Below it, if this is all it can rally from the longer term swing point at 3934.00 it is not a good sign and the short term target is 78.6% back to the 6/30/26 low at 4122.00, this is also a major Gann square. The longer term target is the longer term 38.2% level at 3934.00. When and if this level is taken out we will send out new downside targets.
SP 500 Futures
From the last update,
The market did make a slightly higher high on 7/16/26 and got back below the 7553.25 major Gann square and swing point. The setback initially held 38.2% at 7485.00, but couldn’t get back above 7553.25 and the break has now hit the short term target of 78.6% at 7327.00, this will now be the key level for the week. We will use the ONE44 78.6% rule to get the short term upside target.
Use 7327.00 as the swing point for the week.
Above it, the short term target is 78.6% the other way at 7565.00 per the ONE44 78.6% rule. A failure to turn lower from this area will give us only major Gann squares to look for resistance and then use as the swing point when it is closed above, the next two are 7736.75 and 7890.75. The long term target is the next cluster of major Gann squares at 8240.00.
The market exploded from the 7327.00 (78.6%) swing point and blew through the short term target of 78.6% (7565.00) the other way and on to a new ATH. It now has been sitting above the 7736.75 major Gann square for nine trading days and this will be our key level for the week.
Use 7736.75 as the swing point for the week.
Above it, there are only major Gann squares to look for resistance and then use as the swing point when it is closed above, the next two are 7890.75 and 8060.25. The long term target is the next cluster of major Gann squares at 8240.00.
Below it, the short term target is 38.2% back to the 6/11/26 low at 7610.00, holding this area will keep the trend extremely strong and above the previous highs, failing to hold this area after making a new ATH and then getting back below the previous highs would not be a good sign. The longer term target area is 7357.00 to 7274.00, this is 78.6% back to the 6/11/26 low and 38.2% back to the 3/31/26 low. The long term retracements are marked on the chart if a bigger break were to happen.
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