Gulf funds poised for windfall from Anthropic’s $2trn IPO

• Developer of Claude AI may list this autumn
• $7.5bn backing from Qatar and UAE
• ‘Notable success’ for funds

A $2 trillion flotation for Anthropic will show that Gulf sovereign funds “played it right” by investing early in the artificial intelligence company, analysts have said.

The Qatar Investment Authority, Abu Dhabi tech investor MGX and Alpha Wave are among the backers that stand to benefit if the Claude developer lists this autumn. Alpha Wave is majority-owned by Judan Financial, a subsidiary of Abu Dhabi-based International Holding Company.

These Gulf wealth funds committed an estimated $7.5 billion to Anthropic’s earlier funding rounds, according to research group Global SWF. It said their holdings were likely to be worth substantially more, but could not estimate their combined value.

Matt Kennedy, senior IPO market strategist at Renaissance Capital in New York, said such a market value was not unreasonable based on the US company’s reported financials.

“Investors will need to project several years out and base the valuation on 2028-29 estimates,” he said.

Anthropic, founded in 2021, was priced at $965 billion following a fundraising in May. Preliminary second-quarter revenue exceeded $11.5 billion, up from $787 million a year earlier and $4.7 billion in the first quarter, Bloomberg reported on August 14.

The $2 trillion expectation came from Anthropic investors who spoke to the Financial Times last week.

Kennedy, whose company provides pre-IPO research and exchange-traded funds focused on new listings, said the deal would hinge on Anthropic’s growth, profitability and capital requirements.

“I don’t think the company could get a $2 trillion-plus valuation without the unprecedented growth rate and adjusted operating profit that’s been reported,” he said.

However, he warned that rapid growth did not justify any price.

“Anthropic may deserve to be priced substantially above its comparables – companies with best-in-class growth often deserve a premium,” Kennedy said. “But any stock can be overvalued. New investors especially have to be careful buying on day one, when there’s tremendous hype.”

Shares in Elon Musk’s rocket and satellite company SpaceX surged by about two-thirds after its flotation in June before falling almost halfway from their peak.

Kennedy estimated that Anthropic would need to offer at least $40 billion-$50 billion of shares. Selling about 5 percent could raise closer to $100 billion.

Existing investors would probably face a 180-day lock-up, he said, although partial releases could begin earlier if Anthropic followed SpaceX’s approach.

Diego López, founder of Global SWF, said a listing would allow early investors to cash in or increase their exposure.

“The $2 trillion IPO valuation would largely benefit the early backers, who could monetise their stakes or double down, as we saw with SpaceX,” he told AGBI.

MGX was established by Mubadala and G42. Alpha Wave, originally a US-based investment vehicle, was heavily backed by by entities of Abu Dhabi’s Royal Group before Judan Financial acquired a 50.1 percent stake in the company in March.

A ‘notable success’ in funds’ diversification drive

The investments, made during 2025 and 2026, already appeared to have paid off, according to Kennedy. “The Gulf sovereign funds played this right, and an Anthropic listing would be a notable success in their tech diversification drive,” he said.

Anthropic faces US government scrutiny and litigation with the Department of Defense. It disclosed in July that three Claude models, including its newest Mythos system, had gained unauthorised access to the systems of three organisations.

Kennedy said some investors would buy Anthropic shares regardless of its financial performance, but institutional investors would scrutinise its longer-term prospects.

“I’m sure the same was true of SpaceX,” he said.

Mohammed Soliman, director for compute and AI infrastructure at Washington-based McLarty Associates, said: “Gulf sovereign funds are highly likely to retain, and even in many cases increase, their exposure through and beyond the listing.

“These investors view Anthropic as a proxy for the AI economy rather than a trade they plan to exit right after the IPO.

“The IPO simply provides liquidity options if needed, while reinforcing their role as capital partners of choice across the sector.”