Where Will the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) Be in 20 Years? Here’s What 106 Years of History Suggests.
The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO -0.38%) is one of the most popular ETFs in existence, and for good reason.
It tracks the S&P 500 (^GSPC -0.38%), holding stocks from 500 of the largest and most profitable companies in the U.S. Many of these companies have decades of experience recovering from recessions, bear markets, and crashes, making this ETF a particularly smart choice during periods of volatility.
But how will it fare over the next two decades? While past performance can’t guarantee future returns, over a century of history has encouraging news for investors.
Image source: Getty Images.
The future is bright for the S&P 500
The S&P 500 itself has a stellar track record of earning positive total returns over time. In fact, by staying invested for at least 20 years, it’s historically been harder to lose money with this investment than to make money.
A study by Crestmont Research analyzed the S&P 500’s rolling 20-year total returns from 1919 to 2025. They found that despite severe market volatility over the last 106 years, every single 20-year period ended in positive total returns.
Today’s Change
(-0.38%) $-2.71
Current Price
$708.01
Key Data Points
AUM
$1.7T
Dividend Yield
1.04%
Expense Ratio
0.03%
Top Holdings
NVDA
7.55%
AAPL
7.05%
MSFT
5.36%
Again, past performance can’t predict the future. It’s also likely that we’ll face another bear market or recession at some point in the coming years. But over a century of history suggests that the next 20-year period is also likely to end in positive total returns for the S&P 500.
How much could you earn with the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF?
Historically, the S&P 500 has earned an average annual return of around 10%. This means that while you likely won’t earn 10% returns every single year, the annual highs and lows have generally averaged out to around 10% over many decades.
At that rate, here’s approximately how much you could accumulate over time if you were to invest, say, $200 per month in the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF.
| Number of Years | Total Portfolio Value: 10% Avg. Annual Return |
|---|---|
| 20 | $137,000 |
| 25 | $236,000 |
| 30 | $395,000 |
| 35 | $650,000 |
| 40 | $1,062,000 |
Data source: investor.gov. Calculations by author.
In more recent years, the S&P 500 has outperformed its historic average — with an annualized return of just over 15% over the past 10 years. If it can maintain this pace, investors could earn even more. But even at a 10% average annual return, it’s possible to build a portfolio worth at least $1 million over time.
The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF is a powerhouse investment and core portfolio holding for millions of investors. With the S&P 500’s century-long track record of long-term growth, this ETF can generate life-changing wealth over time.
