Why potash stocks are tied to an overlooked critical mineral

Potash stocks may not attract the same attention as other commodities, such as gold, copper, rare earths, or uranium, but they are no less important.

In fact, potash plays a critical role in something the world depends on: food supply.

It is estimated that around 85% to 95% of global potash supply is used in agricultural fertilizers.

Fertilizers enhance the natural fertility of soil by replenishing or adding essential nutrients required to allow crops to grow.

One of these nutrients is potassium.

Potash is the primary source of potassium used by fertilizer manufacturers.

Why potash stocks matter

In 2025, potash was added to the list of critical minerals in the US Geological Survey due to its use in fertilizer.

Created by the US Department of the Interior, this list denotes minerals where a disruption in the supply could negatively impact the country’s economy or national security. Canada, one of the largest suppliers of potash, also recognizes potash as a critical mineral.

This means that potash stocks are also of importance to the global food supply.

Along with phosphorus and nitrogen, potassium is one of three main plant nutrients crucial for plant health, and there are no substitutes. Potash is a key source of potassium used for plant health.

While these nutrients are naturally occurring in soil, farming activity can strip potassium from the soil at a faster rate than nature can replenish it.

The use of potash in fertilizer then allows farmers to add back these critical nutrients that allow for increased plant yields, improved water efficiency and improved pest and disease resistance.

Growth drivers of potash

As the potash story is largely a story in global food supply, a large factor is demand for food and population growth.

The United Nations forecasts the global population to rise from roughly 8.2 billion people in 2024 to around 10.3 billion people in the mid-2080s. Average life expectancy is also expected to rise during this time.

Demand for food is likely to also increase alongside the population.

Yet, there is only finite land available to grow food. There is a finite amount of suitable agricultural land, while expanding food production also faces pressure from urbanisation, environmental constraints and land degradation.

At the same time, droughts, heatwaves and other extreme weather events can put additional pressure on agricultural productivity.

So, with more mouths to feed but less land available to grow the food needed to feed them, there is a critical need for farmers to be able to grow more from the land that does remain, and one of the key ways to do this is through quality fertilizer.

Potash demand is only one side of the equation. Supply is also highly concentrated, with Canada, Russia and Belarus among the world’s largest producers. This concentration can leave the market exposed to geopolitical disruptions and trade restrictions, while developing new potash production can take years and require significant capital.

That creates an opening for smaller potash stocks developing new sources of supply.

Could this potash stock fill the gap?

One Canadian potash company that is hoping to be a source of that new supply is Buffalo Potash (TSXV:BUFF).

It was one of the potash stocks which appeared in our 3 Emerging Canadian Potash Mining Stocks In Good Financial Standing screener.

Buffalo Potash is a Saskatchewan-based emerging miner who is combining a site that sits next to two of the largest potash mines in the world along with a new, patented, technique to extract the mineral at what it believes will be a fraction of the cost.

A critical mineral that investors are overlooking, a promising site at which to start mining operations, and an innovative technique are what the most followed narrative in the Simply Wall St community is built around.

It highlights how Buffalo is targeting first production from its Disley project in early 2027, initially producing around 125,000 tonnes a year before potentially scaling to more than 1.1 million tonnes annually.

Disclaimer

This article was written independently by the author, without issuer input or approval. Buffalo Potash Corp. has a marketing services agreement with Simply Wall St. Details on compensation and other important information can be found in the disclosure and disclaimer at the end of this narrative.

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Simply Wall St analyst Andrew Legget and Simply Wall St have no position in any of the companies mentioned. This article is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.