Saad Hariri signals political comeback in Lebanon
Lebanese Sunni politician Saad Hariri appears to be angling for a return to political leadership in Beirut. Over the weekend, he said that his political party, known as the Future movement, would seek to contest the next parliamentary elections.
The elections will likely take place in May. The Future Movement had suspended its political activities in 2022, Arab News noted.
Hariri is angling to return to politics as he marks the 21st anniversary of the assassination of his father, former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.
He gave a speech on February 14 at Martyrs’ Square in front of his father’s tomb in Beirut. Rafik Hariri was murdered in a bombing that was likely carried out by Hezbollah. It’s possible that the Assad regime was also involved. The bombing in 2025 led to Syria’s regime withdrawing from Lebanon.
It also led to protests against Hezbollah. Hezbollah appears to have responded by attacking Israel in 2006, in order to cause a war and keep itself relevant. Today, Hezbollah is once again under fire from Israel after attacking Israel on October 8, 2023, the day after the Hamas attack.
Lebanon has changed over the last few decades. Saad Hariri took over the reins of Sunni politics in Lebanon after his father’s death. However, he struggled to become a leader. He was young. When he aged, he continued to struggle. At one point, he flew to Saudi Arabia for consultations with the Saudis and appeared to be held in Saudi Arabia.
Hariri sidelined as new Lebanese leaders aim to disarm Hezbollah
His political allies among Christians, Sunnis, and others were never able to curtail Hezbollah. Now, having been basically sidelined in Lebanon, he has seen a political leadership emerge that claims it will disarm Hezbollah. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam are supposed to be leading the way.
Hariri said that “after 21 years, the supporters of Hariri’s approach are still many.” He went on to say that “moderation is not hesitation…and patience is not weakness. Rafik Hariri’s project is not a dream that will fade. He was the model of a statesman who believed, until martyrdom, that ‘no one is greater than their country.’ The proof is his enduring place in the minds, hearts, and consciences of the Lebanese people.”
Now, “the Lebanese are weary, and after years of wars, divisions, alignments and armed bastions, they deserve a normal country with one constitution, one army, and one legitimate authority over weapons — because Lebanon is one and will remain one. Notions of division have collapsed in the face of reality, history, and geography, and the illusions of annexation and hegemony have fallen with those who pursued them, who ultimately fled,” he said, according to Arab News.
He talked about a stable Middle East and working on positive ties with the new government in Syria. This makes sense. Hariri is an ally of Saudi Arabia, and so is the Ahmed al-Shara’a government in Damascus. Hariri has also praised the Taif agreement of 1989, which was brokered by Saudi Arabia to end the Lebanese Civil War, which began in the 1960s. His speech is being watched in Lebanon and the region. The pro-Iranian Al-Akhbar covered the speech.
The Turkish state TV broadcaster TRT also interviewed Future Movement Secretary-General Ahmad Hariri to discuss what comes next. “Saad Hariri, the former prime minister, had announced in January 2022 that he was suspending his political activity and would not run in the parliamentary elections or present candidates on behalf of the Future Movement, which is considered the most prominent Sunni political component in the country,” TRT noted.
Ahmad Hariri, a cousin of Saad Hariri, noted that “the Future Movement had been in limbo since 2022 by a decision of its former leader, adding that recent regional developments were a turning point. He pointed to what he described as a ‘major shift’ in the regional landscape, most notably the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, as well as the growing clarity regarding the need to preserve Syria’s unity and the success of Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa’s vision,” TRT noted.
The Hariris believe that there is a void in Lebanon caused by the absence of the Future Movement and a powerful historic Sunni bloc in parliament. “Regarding the significance of this year’s February 14th anniversary, he [Ahmad Hariri] explained that the domestic situation is exceptional, particularly as it precedes the parliamentary elections scheduled for next May. He confirmed that the authorities have called on voters to participate in the elections, with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun insisting that the elections be held on time without postponement,’ TRT noted.
Another interesting point noted in TRT is that “Hariri considered the rapprochement between Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt a positive development that serves the region, noting that previous disagreements between these countries represented a collective weakness. He said that the steps taken by Ankara in this direction contributed to strengthening the cohesion of the regional position.”
He noted that “the coordination between President Erdogan, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi constitutes a regional framework capable of confronting challenges, including attempts by the Israeli occupation to exploit any vacuum or division in the region.”
Some see this as a new Sunni alliance emerging in the Middle East. This would aid the Sunnis in Lebanon. Lebanon-Syria ties will be important in this context. Both Turkey and Saudi Arabia will want to see the Hariri’s do outreach to Damascus.
This could flip the situation from one where Assad backed Hezbollah, to Shara’a backing the Sunnis in Lebanon. This could be a game-changer. It could also lead to weakening Hezbollah. Israel has wanted Hezbollah weakened, but is skeptical of Shara’a, and some voices in Jerusalem are wary of a Sunni alliance emerging.
Clearly, the Iranians are watching these developments along with Hezbollah. They also don’t want to see a strong Hariri emerge in Lebanon. Hezbollah killed his father, and it’s unlikely Iran didn’t know, and Assad also didn’t know. As such, there is much at stake in Beirut.
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