A Look At Mueller Water Products (MWA) Valuation As Earnings And Cash Flow Models Diverge
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Mueller Water Products (MWA) is back on investors’ radar after recent trading, with the share price at $26.57 and short term returns showing mixed moves over the day, week, month, and past 3 months.
See our latest analysis for Mueller Water Products.
While the latest 1 day share price return of 1.01% is a small pullback, the 30 day share price return of 7.05% and year to date share price return of 10.99% sit alongside a 1 year total shareholder return of 15.91%. This suggests interest in Mueller Water Products has been building over time.
If this kind of steady water infrastructure story has your attention, it could be a good moment to widen your watchlist with fast growing stocks with high insider ownership
With Mueller Water Products trading at $26.57, only about 4% below the average analyst price target and with an intrinsic value estimate that sits higher than today’s price, you have to ask: is this still a buying opportunity, or is the market already pricing in future growth?
At $26.57, Mueller Water Products sits a little below the most followed fair value estimate of $27.67, which is built around long term water infrastructure demand and profitability assumptions.
Anticipated acceleration in demand for water infrastructure replacement, as the pressing need to repair and replace aging U.S. municipal water systems is expected to drive sustained order growth for repair products and valves, supporting long term revenue expansion and backlog stability.
Curious what earnings power is baked into that price tag? The narrative leans on rising margins, steady revenue growth, and a future earnings multiple that assumes real staying power.
Result: Fair Value of $27.67 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, delays in federal infrastructure funding or tighter municipal budgets could slow project activity, which would challenge the growth and margin assumptions behind this fair value story.
Find out about the key risks to this Mueller Water Products narrative.
The fair value estimate of $27.67 is based on earnings and multiples, but our DCF model suggests a different result, with a future cash flow value of $24.16. From this perspective, Mueller Water Products at $26.57 appears overvalued rather than 4% undervalued. Which approach do you consider more informative: earnings power or cash flows?
