AbbVie and Merck Face-Off: Which Pharma Stock Has the Lead? – June 22, 2026
Key Takeaways
- AbbVie’s Skyrizi and Rinvoq are driving growth and are expected to exceed $31 billion in sales in 2026.
- MRK is expanding its pipeline and expects to launch 20 new drugs by 2030 to offset Keytruda’s patent expiry.
- ABBV has navigated Humira’s patent cliff and expects high single-digit revenue growth through 2029.
Merck (MRK – Free Report) and AbbVie (ABBV – Free Report) are among the leading pharmaceutical companies, with well-established franchises in oncology and immunology, respectively. Beyond its core businesses, AbbVie has expanded into aesthetics, neuroscience and eye care, while Merck has built a more diversified portfolio that includes vaccines, neuroscience, diabetes, virology and animal health.
Oncology generates more than 60% of Merck’s pharmaceutical revenues, with its blockbuster cancer therapy, Keytruda, contributing roughly 55% of pharmaceutical sales. For AbbVie, immunology remains the primary growth engine, led by blockbuster therapies such as Humira, Skyrizi and Rinvoq, which together account for nearly half of the company’s total revenues.
Both companies continue to post solid revenue and earnings growth and possess strong late-stage pipelines. The key question for investors is which stock offers the better investment opportunity—a decision that warrants a closer examination of their fundamentals, growth prospects and associated risks.
The Case for AbbVie Stock
AbbVie has successfully navigated the loss of exclusivity (LOE) of its blockbuster drug, Humira, which once generated more than 50% of its total revenues. It has accomplished this by launching two other successful new immunology medicines, Skyrizi and Rinvoq, which are performing extremely well, bolstered by approvals in new indications, and should support top-line growth in the next few years.
In 2026, AbbVie expects combined Skyrizi and Rinvoq sales of more than $31 billion. Combined, Skyrizi and Rinvoq are expected to deliver more than 20% growth in 2026. However, AbbVie expects a low single-digit pricing headwind for both Skyrizi and Rinvoq in 2026 and over the next few years. Moreover, the launch of J&J’s (JNJ – Free Report) new oral pill for moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis, Icotyde, has increased competitive pressure on Skyrizi, which may affect the product’s prescribing trends. However, AbbVie seems confident that it can navigate competition from Icotyde.
AbbVie’s neuroscience portfolio is also contributing to top-line growth, driven by higher sales of Botox Therapeutic, depression drug Vraylar, newer migraine drugs Ubrelvy and Qulipta and new Parkinson’s disease drug, Vyalev.
AbbVie has built a substantial oncology franchise with Imbruvica and Venclexta. However, its oncology sales have slightly slowed down.
The company has been on an acquisition spree over the past couple of years to bolster the early-stage pipeline that should drive long-term growth. It is signing several M&A deals in the immunology space, its core area, and some early-stage deals in oncology and neuroscience. AbbVie also boasts a robust pipeline and expects important data readouts, regulatory submissions and approvals throughout 2026
The company faces some near-term headwinds like Humira’s biosimilar erosion, slowdown in oncology sales and soft sales of its Aesthetics unit for the past couple of years due to continued macro challenges and weakened consumer sentiment.
The Case for MRK Stock
Merck boasts more than six blockbuster drugs in its portfolio, with Keytruda being the key top-line driver. Keytruda, approved for several types of cancers, has played an instrumental role in driving Merck’s steady revenue growth over the past few years. Though Keytruda will lose patent exclusivity in 2028, its sales are expected to remain strong until then.
The company expects Keytruda to achieve peak sales of $35 billion by 2028. Merck’s other oncology drugs, Welireg, AstraZeneca-partnered Lynparza and Eisai-partnered Lenvima, are also contributing to top-line growth.
Merck’s Animal Health business is also a key contributor to its top-line growth, with sales expected to more than double by mid-2030s.
Its phase III pipeline has almost tripled since 2021, supported by in-house pipeline progress as well as the addition of candidates through M&A deals. Merck expects to launch 20 new drugs by 2030, with many already launched.
Some key new products with blockbuster potential are its 21-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine, Capvaxive, and pulmonary arterial hypertension drug, Winrevair. Both products have witnessed a strong launch and have the potential to generate significant revenues over the long term.
The company has accelerated acquisitions over the past year as it prepares for the 2028 patent expiry of Keytruda. The company strengthened its pipeline with the 2025 acquisition of Verona Pharma, adding COPD drug Ohtuvayre. The 2026 buyouts of Cidara Therapeutics and Terns Pharmaceuticals added late-stage influenza and hematology/cancer pipeline assets, respectively.
Sales of Merck’s second-largest product, its HPV vaccine, Gardasil, have been declining due to continued weak sales performance in China. Sales of Gardasil are declining in China due to weak demand trends amid an economic slowdown. The company is also seeing lower demand for the vaccine in Japan. Gardasil sales are not expected to improve in 2026.
Sales of some other Merck vaccines, like Proquad, M-M-R II, Varivax, Rotateq and Vaxneuvance, also declined in the first quarter.
Merck is heavily reliant on Keytruda. Though Keytruda may be Merck’s biggest strength and a solid reason to own the stock, the company is excessively dependent on the drug. Keytruda’s core U.S. patent is expected to expire around 2028, with additional patents expiring slightly after that. Keytruda is expected to face significant biosimilar competition around 2028-2029. Once biosimilars enter, Keytruda’s sales are likely to decline sharply.
MRK is seeing declining sales of key products such as Januvia/Janumet, Isentress and Dificid due to weak demand, patent expirations and rising generic competition. The company expects generic erosion of Januvia/Janumet, Bridion and Dificid to reduce 2026 revenues by around $2.5 billion.
Nonetheless, Merck’s new products, Winrevair, Welireg and Capvaxive, key pipeline progress and expansion of its respiratory and infectious disease and oncology portfolios through the acquisitions of Verona Pharma, Cidara Therapeutics and Terns Pharmaceuticals have improved its long-term growth prospects.
How Do Estimates Compare for ABBV & MRK?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ABBV’s 2026 sales and EPS implies a year-over-year increase of 10.1% and 43.0%, respectively. EPS estimates for 2026 have been stable at $14.30 over the past 60 days, while those for 2027 have risen from $16.15 to $16.30 over the same timeframe.
ABBV Estimate Movement
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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Merck’s 2026 sales and EPS implies a year-over-year increase of 2.7% and a decrease of 42.4%, respectively. Estimates for MRK’s 2026 earnings have risen from $5.14 per share to $5.17 per share over the past 60 days, while those for 2027 have declined from $9.87 to $9.85 per share over the same timeframe.
MRK Estimate Movement
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Price Performance and Valuation of ABBV & MRK
Year to date, AbbVie’s stock has declined 5.2%, while Merck’s stock has risen 8.2%. The industry has witnessed an increase of 1.3% in the same time frame.
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MRK is more expensive than ABBV, going by the price/earnings ratio. AbbVie’s shares currently trade at 14.2 forward earnings, lower than 15.42 for Merck. AbbVie and Merck are both priced lower than 17.06 for the industry.
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Both Merck and AbbVie are cheaper than other large drugmakers like Eli Lilly (LLY – Free Report) , AstraZeneca and J&J.
AbbVie’s dividend yield of 3.2% is higher than MRK’s 2.99%.
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ABBV vs. MRK: Which is a Better Pick?
Both AbbVie and Merck have a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), which makes choosing one stock extremely difficult.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
AbbVie has faced its biggest challenge — Humira’s patent cliff — quite well and looks well-positioned for continued strong growth in the years ahead. ABBV delivered robust net sales growth in 2025, which was just the second full year following the Humira LOE in the United States. AbbVie expects another year of robust growth in 2026. It expects total revenues to rise around 10% in 2026. It expects high single-digit revenue growth through 2029, as the company has no significant LOE events for the rest of this decade.
Merck’s new products and strong progress in its pipeline have increased confidence that the company may be able to maintain growth even after Keytruda loses exclusivity.
However, Merck faces several near-term challenges, including persistent challenges for Gardasil in China and rising competitive and generic pressure on some of its drugs. There is still considerable uncertainty regarding the post-Keytruda era. Unlike Merck, AbbVie has already demonstrated its ability to navigate a major patent cliff and successfully replace lost revenues with newer products. This makes AbbVie a winner over Merck.
