CCTV Script 02/09/26
– This is the script of CNBC’s financial news report for China’s CCTV on SEPTEMBER 02, 2026.
A cup of mocha currently sells for around $6 in California’s Silicon Valley, but whether it will become even more expensive in a few months remains uncertain. Futures prices for the commodities required to make a mocha—such as coffee, cocoa, and sugar—have all surged significantly over the past period.
Over the past three months, international futures markets saw cocoa rise by more than 60% cumulatively, coffee gain over 30%, and raw sugar futures increase by nearly 30%.
In addition, key agricultural futures including rice, cotton, and corn have also rallied significantly since the beginning of the year, with most currently trading around their highest levels in three years.
Murat Ulgen
Global Head of Macro Strategy
HSBC
El Nino is not only about sort of climate and variation of sea level temperatures … cut to … looking from a supply chain perspective, the low levels of you know sort of you know sea levels, like say in Panama Canal, which impacts transit and and supply delivery, etc. So, if I were to pick one risk, as you mentioned, that would possibly be more food price related going forward.
Máximo Torero, Chief Economist at the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), issued a direct warning in August: the world may be facing a new wave of rising food prices. In his view, the transmission of rising commodity prices to final retail food prices typically takes about 3 to 6 months. Consequently, these price pressures could become significantly more pronounced by the end of this year, with effects potentially extending into 2027. Latest analysis from the UN World Food Programme (WFP) projects that by the end of 2027, as many as 274 million people worldwide could face acute food insecurity—an increase of approximately 49 million from current levels. The droughts, floods, and crop yield reductions brought on by El Niño represent one of the primary risk factors.
El Niño impacts far more than just food; it can also ripple through economic crops like natural rubber into the costs of industrial goods and manufacturing.
Barclays Research released a report on August 30, stating that the peak of El Niño-related indices during this cycle could be roughly 15% stronger than the super El Niño event of 2015 to 2016. Barclays projects that palm oil, coconut oil, and rubber could rise by 30% to 40% over the next 18 months, coffee could see an additional 20% to 30% surge, and rice could increase by a further 10% to 20%. Meanwhile, El Niño’s ramifications may spill over from agricultural commodities into industrial metals and energy markets. Barclays estimates that if extreme weather disrupts mining operations and hydropower generation, copper and aluminum prices could climb by as much as 20%, while increased demand for alternative power sources in certain regions could drive thermal coal prices up by 20% to 40%.
It is worth noting that despite these challenges, global grain reserves are currently more ample compared to past super El Niño events. Agricultural production technologies and weather forecasting capabilities have also improved substantially, all of which could help the market absorb part of the supply shocks.
A Reuters analysis points out that India’s rice stocks now exceed the total annual volume of global rice exports, to the point where the country is facing warehouse space shortages. Meanwhile, China currently holds nearly half of the world’s wheat reserves.
Therefore, how much of the impact caused by El Niño will ultimately translate into the bills handed to consumers remains to be seen.
