China, Japan, and the Politics of Mobility

In 2025, the world witnessed for the first time the weaponisation of mineral supply chains by China, utilising its dominant position as a negotiating tool with the US. Similarly, China’s leveraging of its manufacturing production capacity and restricting exports of Chinese-made chips, as seen in the case of Nexperia, highlighted the intensifying geopolitical tussle between China and the West. Besides these cases, we are also witnessing the geopoliticisation of tourism in East Asia by China. Although an old tactic, the approach adopted is to push all pressure points together to maximise one’s interest. This article aims to examine the emergence of tourism as a marker signalling the geopolitical shifts in the East Asian region.

Tourism as a Geopolitical Tool

On 7 November, Sanae Takaichi, the Japanese Prime Minister, made a statement on Taiwan while addressing the Diet, which led to a diplomatic fallout. Talking about a hypothetical China’s attack on Taiwan, the Japanese PM called it a threatening situation for Japan, which may trigger a military intervention from its side. This diplomatic tussle has not only resulted in serious consequences for the movement of trade and commodities, but also the mobility of people across borders, particularly tourists.

The number of Chinese tourists increased by 40 percent compared to last year, reaching 8.2 million and accounting for 23 percent of the total share.

Since the incident, Japan’s tourism industry has been hit by the Prime Minister’s statement. Immediately after the incident, multiple ministries in China, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Education and the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, issued advisory warnings to their citizens to refrain from travelling to Japan. Since then, tourism from China to Japan has dropped drastically. China constitutes an important part of Japan’s tourism economy; almost 20 percent of tourists are from China, contributing to approximately 1.64 trillion yen between January and September 2025. This fall came in an otherwise great year for tourism in Japan. The number of Chinese tourists increased by 40 percent compared to last year, reaching 8.2 million and accounting for 23 percent of the total share.

According to the Japan National Tourism Organization, in 2025, almost 66,08,024 Chinese tourists visited Japan between January and September, the largest number among all countries, followed by South Korea. Due to the absence of Chinese tourists, Japan is expected to incur a loss of US$ 14.23 billion.

Besides the government, the tourist operators have followed the government’s lead, suspending travel packages to Japan, suggesting alternative destinations, and actively discouraging travel to Japan. Out of 5,548 flights to Japan in December, around 904 flights have been suspended. Similarly, Chinese airlines such as China Eastern, China Southern, and Air China offered passengers the option to receive a full refund and even change their itineraries free of charge until the end of the year. This underscores the active role that the private operators are playing in creating a maximum pressure campaign.

Figure 1: 2025 Trends in Annual Visitors to Japan

Source: Japan National Tourism Organization

While it is normal to see that after any conflict or contestation between two countries, whether diplomatic or otherwise, tourism is often impacted. Several instances have occurred this year alone, such as the decline in the number of Canadian tourists visiting the US due to worsening ties. Similarly, historical tension also translates to less mobility between countries, particularly in East Asia, which in a way reflects the strength of relations between countries. For example, easy visa rules for Russian tourists visiting North Korea, as compared to Chinese tourists, emphasise the strength of ties Pyongyang shares with Moscow and Beijing. These trends show that Tourism is a vital marker, emphasising the state of ties between the two countries.

At One’s Convenience: State-Control and Mobility

Japan’s loss has now become another country’s gain. South Korea, Thailand, Singapore, and Malaysia are becoming holiday destinations for Chinese tourists. However, among all countries, specific mobility patterns have emerged that merit attention, particularly in South Korea and Thailand. Neither of these countries was on the Chinese government’s or tourists’ top list earlier. Thailand was considered a no-go destination for many Chinese tourists due to safety issues like human trafficking, which came to light earlier this year due to Wang Xing’s kidnapping, a famous Chinese actor. Following that incident, the number of Chinese tourists travelling to Thailand dropped by almost 8 percent compared to last year. In this decline, Chinese tourists accounted for a 34.97 percent decline, standing at 3.41 million, the highest among all countries. Even recently, the Chinese embassy in Thailand issued an urgent scam alert, highlighting risks such as human trafficking, fake job offers, and zero-dollar tours.

Thailand was considered a no-go destination for many Chinese tourists due to safety issues like human trafficking, which came to light earlier this year due to Wang Xing’s kidnapping, a famous Chinese actor.

Similarly, South Korea, which has now replaced Japan as the top destination for Chinese tourists, was very recently flagged by the Chinese embassy in Seoul for increasing anti-China protests. On 26 September, the Chinese embassy in Korea issued a warning to Chinese tourists stating they “should maintain high vigilance, strengthen self-protection awareness, keep distance from political gatherings, and refrain from making public political statements.” In the past, the same embassy has also issued a safety advisory underlining that ‘extreme events cannot be ruled out’, and requested stronger protection from the Foreign Ministry after an attempted intrusion.

Nonetheless, despite the warnings issued by the respective Embassies in South Korea and Thailand, tourism from China has increased. The number of flights from China to South Korea has increased by 11 percent, from 91,574 to 101,719. As of October this year, the country had seen 4.7 million visitors, representing a 20 percent month-on-month increase from the same period last year. Similarly, Thailand has become the top destination for the winter holiday period, between January 15 and February 10, 2026. This rise in tourism to South Korea can be attributed, in part, to the Chinese authorities’ limited emphasis on existing security concerns, with some even being downplayed. This stands in contrast to Japan’s case, where some concerns are manufactured, amplified and promoted by both state and non-state actors.

This whole episode highlights three crucial points. First, despite the serious concerns that exist, Chinese state institutions have not issued any serious warnings or advisories that disincentivise tourists from visiting Korea and Thailand. Second, airlines, cruise and tourism operators are encouraging people to travel to South Korea and Thailand, adjusting to the shift, by announcing special ticket handling policies, suggesting alternatives and suspending promotions of Japan. For instance, Qingdao Airlines launched a direct flight route between Qingdao and Daegu, a city in South Korea, to meet the increasing demand. Similarly, the Chinese airline has also increased its flight capacity to Thailand, breaking from its earlier plans for November and December. Additionally, Cruise operators are also bypassing Japanese ports. In an interview with the Global Times, a representative from a Chinese travel company stated, “If authorities advise against travel to Japan, we will also discourage customers from going.” And finally, Chinese citizens have shifted to alternative destinations, largely disregarding similar concerns in South Korea and Thailand that were cited in Japan’s case. Taken altogether, these observations underscore that while tourism is primarily shaped by individual choices, it is, to a considerable extent, influenced by the state.

Cruise operators are also bypassing Japanese ports. In an interview with the Global Times, a representative from a Chinese travel company stated, “If authorities advise against travel to Japan, we will also discourage customers from going.”

China’s responses to South Korea and Thailand’s cases stand in stark contrast to Japan’s, where the issue was deliberately blown out of proportion, and linked with xenophobia, travelling costs, visa rules and regulations, and security of Chinese tourists. This shows that the whole incident underlines how China strategically utilises, along with state and non-state institutions, the lever of pressure, including the mobility of tourists, directing them based on the state of geopolitical relations. While this policy was also practised earlier, its enforcement, along with other levers such as trade and technology restrictions, shows the extent to which China will go to put pressure. It’s Japan today; tomorrow it will be another country.

Abhishek Sharma is a Junior Fellow with the Strategic Studies Programme at the Observer Research Foundation.

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