Coeur Mining (NYSE:CDE) Recovers; Q2 Cash Flow Per Share Declines
NEW YORK, August 7, 2026, 06:06 EDT — U.S. main session remained shut while premarket deals continued.
- The stock gained 5.4% before the market open to $16.49, rebounding from a 10.2% decrease on Thursday.
- Free cash flow for the quarter increased by 45%, while cash flow per weighted share declined by 1.9%.
- Coeur lowered its gold and copper output forecasts and increased its expected capital expenditure.
Shares of Coeur Mining, Inc. NYSE:CDE rose 5.4% to $16.49 in premarket trading on Friday, after ending Thursday’s session 10.2% lower at $15.65.
The recovery has not eased the main concern for investors. Despite record cash generation across the company, per-share growth has yet to materialise.
Company data shows free cash flow for the second quarter at 37.5 cents per weighted share, down 1.9% from the first quarter’s 38.2 cents. The weighted-average share count rose 48% following the acquisition.
Adjusted earnings came in at 12 cents per share. Including Coeur’s reported 10-cent purchase-accounting drag results in roughly 22 cents, missing the 26-cent estimate from FactSet Research Systems NYSE:FDS.
August 6 closing prices compared with key peers
| Company | Closing price | Daily change | Coeur’s underperformance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coeur Mining, Inc. NYSE:CDE | $15.65 | -10.21% | — |
| Hecla Mining Co. NYSE:HL | $15.86 | -4.11% | — |
| Pan American Silver Corp. NYSE:PAAS | $48.05 | -0.46% | — |
| First Majestic Silver Corp. NYSE:AG | $17.28 | -1.87% | — |
The gap between peers was significant. Coeur lagged Hecla by 6.1 percentage points and was 9.8 points behind Pan American, pointing to concerns related to company-specific execution.
Coeur declined 1.5% over the past week, closing at $14.91 on July 31. Although shares slipped on Thursday, the stock was still up 5.0% for the week. In premarket trading on Friday, the price suggested a 10.6% increase.
Revenue for the second quarter was $1.086 billion. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $478.3 million, and free cash flow totaled $387.5 million. The company’s cash position surpassed total debt by approximately $347 million.
Second-quarter per-share check
| Metric | Q2 2026 | Q1 2026 | Sequential change | FactSet estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1,085.6 mln | $856.2 mln | up 26.8% | $1,240 mln |
| Adjusted EPS | $0.12 | $0.36 | down 66.7% | $0.26 |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $478.3 mln | $474.9 mln | increased 0.7% | — |
| Free cash flow | $387.5 mln | $266.8 mln | up 45.2% | — |
| Weighted-average shares | 1,034.4 mln | 698.7 mln | up 48.0% | — |
| Free cash flow per weighted share | $0.375 | $0.382 | down 1.9% | — |
Derived using disclosed free cash flow and average weighted shares.
Gold output jumped 69% from the previous quarter to a new peak of 163,490 ounces. Silver production was unchanged at 4.4 million ounces, down 7% year-on-year.
Guidance drove the change. Coeur lowered its output expectations for both of its Canadian sites and increased projected expenditures.
2026 forecast updates — midpoints derived from company-provided ranges.
| Metric | Previous midpoint | Updated midpoint | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total gold output | 747,500 oz | 690,000 oz | -7.7% |
| Total silver output | 20.305 mln oz | 20.305 mln oz | Unchanged |
| Total copper output | 57.5 mln lb | 45.0 mln lb | -21.7% |
| New Afton gold output | 70,000 oz | 55,000 oz | -21.4% |
| Rainy River gold output | 252,500 oz | 210,000 oz | -16.8% |
| New Afton gold cash costs | $1,100/oz | $1,450/oz | +31.8% |
| Rainy River gold cash costs | $2,250/oz | $2,850/oz | +26.7% |
| Capital spending | $481.5 mln | $562.5 mln | +16.8% |
Average daily underground output at Rainy River was approximately 2,300 tonnes, falling short of expectations. Production climbed to 3,300 tonnes in July. Coeur continues to aim for 5,000 tonnes per day by the end of the year.
Chief Executive Mitchell J. Krebs stated that Coeur implemented “more achievable ramp-up timetables.” Krebs continues to anticipate “sharp increases” in production and free cash flow during the second half. Coeur Mining
Capital distributions provide some support. Coeur allocated $121 million to buy back 6.7 million shares as of July 31, suggesting an average price of about $18.06 per share.
At Thursday’s close, the price was 13.3% under that average. The unused $629 million buyback authorization could, at Thursday’s share price, retire 40.2 million shares, which is 3.9% of the second-quarter weighted average. The timing and amount of actual purchases are discretionary.
Analysts maintained positive outlooks despite the shortfall. Joseph Reagor of Roth MKM kept a Buy rating, trimming his price target to $19 from $21. Bank of Montreal’s NYSE:BMO Kevin O’Halloran also reaffirmed Buy and left his target at $26.
Chosen analyst ratings
| Analyst | Firm | Rating and action | Target | Upside to $15.65 | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Reagor | Roth MKM | Buy; price target lowered | $19.00 | 21.4% | Aug. 7 |
| Kevin O’Halloran | Bank of Montreal NYSE:BMO | Buy; rating repeated | $26.00 | 66.1% | Aug. 6 |
| Josh Wolfson | Royal Bank of Canada NYSE:RY | Buy; rating affirmed | $23.00 | 47.0% | July 27 |
| Eric Winmill | Scotiabank NYSE:BNS | Buy; rating affirmed | $28.50 | 82.1% | July 22 |
| Mike Kozak | Cantor Fitzgerald | Hold; rating reduced | $19.00 | 21.4% | May 7 |
With Coeur’s investor calendar showing no subsequent events, attention next week turns to updates from analysts and trends in metal prices. Market participants are set to assess management’s expectation of increased output in the latter part of the year.
Risks: There is potential for further delays in Canadian production increases. Rising capital requirements, declining grades, or softer metal prices may impact cash flow. Buybacks might also decelerate or take place at less favorable valuations.
Per-share accretion is now essential to the bull case. Based on Thursday’s market price, management’s projection of $1.5 billion in free cash flow translates to a 9.3% yield if the guidance is reached.
Which aspect did the market react to unfavorably following Coeur’s second-quarter earnings release?
CDE ended trading on August 6 at $15.65, falling 10.2% in the most recent session.The report highlighted reduction in production guidance and increased mine costs in Canada as the main negatives. Gold output guidance was revised down to 630,000–750,000 ounces from the prior 680,000–815,000 range. Copper forecast was cut to 40–50 million pounds from a previous 50–65 million. Silver guidance as well as ranges at all five legacy mines were left unchanged.
Is Coeur on track to achieve $1.5 billion in free cash flow for 2026?
Free cash flow for the first half totaled $654 million based on quarterly data. This leaves Coeur with a second-half funding requirement of approximately $846 million.The company continues to project adjusted EBITDA of $2.3 billion and free cash flow of $1.5 billion. These estimates are based on gold at $4,000 an ounce, silver at $60 an ounce, and copper at $6 per pound. These remain Coeur’s official outlook.
Is the pace of recovery at New Afton and Rainy River ramps sufficient?
New Afton processed an average of 12,000 tonnes per day in the second quarter, increased to 14,000 tonnes per day by late July, and aims for 16,000 tonnes per day in the first part of the fourth quarter.Rainy River underground averaged 2,300 tonnes per day before climbing to 3,300 tonnes per day in July. Management has set a goal of 5,000 tonnes per day by year-end.New Afton’s gold-cost guidance has been raised to $1,300–$1,600 per ounce from the previous $1,000–$1,200. Rainy River’s guidance is now between $2,700–$3,000, up from $2,150–$2,350. A non-cash inventory accounting factor accounts for about $1,020 per ounce at Rainy River.
What is the remaining capacity for capital returns following the increased spending outlook?
Cash and equivalents stood at $1.052 billion compared with $705 million in debt, leaving net cash near $347 million as of June 30.The company’s capital guidance increased to $520–$605 million, up from the previous $437–$526 million range. About $45 million of the rise came from capitalized stripping being reclassified, while an additional $25 million will go toward Rainy River underground development.Coeur bought back $121 million worth of shares, or 6.7 million shares, by July 31, representing around 0.6% of its average second-quarter share count. The firm also issued its first $0.02 semiannual dividend payment.
