Earnings Miss: Lumine Group Inc. Missed EPS By 30% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

It’s shaping up to be a tough period for Lumine Group Inc. (CVE:LMN), which a week ago released some disappointing first-quarter results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. It wasn’t a great result overall – while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$208m, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 30%, coming in at just US$0.068 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company’s performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there’s been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Lumine Group’s three analysts is for revenues of US$941.5m in 2026. This would reflect a decent 18% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to decline 17% to US$0.38 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$951.6m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.45 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a real cut to EPS estimates.

See our latest analysis for Lumine Group

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target fell 5.6% to CA$41.75, with the analysts clearly linking lower forecast earnings to the performance of the stock price. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so – it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Lumine Group at CA$57.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CA$35.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Lumine Group’shistorical trends, as the 25% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 is roughly in line with the 27% annual growth over the past three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 16% per year. So although Lumine Group is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it’s definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it’s tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company’s earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Lumine Group going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see whether Lumine Group is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.