‘Facing resistance’, market unlikely to make a clear breakthrough, how should we respond?

On the afternoon of September 21st, the price of 99.99% pure gold rings and SJC gold bars at SJC, PNJ, DOJI , Bao Tin Minh Chau, and Phu Quy all decreased by up to 1.2 million VND per ounce.

Thus, the trend on September 21st continued the downward trend that had persisted since the end of the previous day’s trading session. As of the end of September 21st, the domestic gold market continued its downward trend compared to the previous day’s closing price. Plain gold rings from the surveyed brands decreased by 1-1.2 million VND/ounce in both buying and selling prices, while SJC gold bars uniformly decreased by 1 million VND/ounce.

Thus, the highest buying price for gold rings is 143.6 million VND/ounce at PNJ and Phu Quy, while the lowest is 142.6 million VND/ounce at Bao Tin Minh Chau, a difference of 1 million VND/ounce. On the selling side, DOJI has the highest price at 146.8 million VND/ounce, while SJC has the lowest at 146.1 million VND/ounce.

Specifically, the price of SJC gold bars decreased by 1 million VND/ounce in both buying and selling directions. Saigon Jewelry Company (SJC), PNJ, DOJI, and Phu Quy listed prices at 143.6 – 146.6 million VND/ounce (buying – selling), while Bao Tin Minh Chau listed at 142.6 – 146.6 million VND/ounce.

The price of 99.99% pure gold rings at SJC decreased by 1 million VND/ounce in both buying and selling directions, to 143.1 – 146.1 million VND/ounce. PNJ also decreased by 1 million VND/ounce, to 143.6 – 146.6 million VND/ounce. DOJI saw a sharper decrease of 1.2 million VND/ounce in both buying and selling directions, to 142.8 – 146.8 million VND/ounce. Bao Tin Minh Chau decreased by 1 million VND/ounce in both directions, to 142.6 – 146.6 million VND/ounce. Phu Quy also decreased by 1 million VND/ounce, to 143.6 – 146.6 million VND/ounce.

World gold prices edged lower at the start of the week, falling to near $4,300.

Global gold prices edged lower in early trading this week as high US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar outweighed safe-haven demand amid US- Iran tensions and restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

According to World and Vietnam News, at 8:50 PM on August 21st (Hanoi time), the world gold price listed on the Kitco electronic exchange was… The price of $ 4,356.80 per ounce adjusted down $21.7 from the previous trading session, equivalent to a 0.5% decrease from the preceding session.

The US economic data released over the weekend continued to provide some support for the gold market, but it was not enough to alter the constraints on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. The latest data showed weakening industrial momentum and less optimistic signals about future demand. However, these developments were not significant enough to overshadow the Fed’s concerns about inflation.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted that supply-side shocks could force the economy to confront a “painful trade-off” between jobs and inflation. This has led interest rate markets to continue focusing on the possibility that oil prices, services inflation, and demand related to artificial intelligence (AI) could prolong the monetary tightening cycle.

The current stance in the gold market remains defensive, but is no longer as one-sided as it was earlier this month. However, the market’s reaction is now primarily driven by adjustments in expectations regarding Fed policy rather than concerns about economic growth.

Last week, the Fed raised the target range of the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00%. Meanwhile, interest rate futures are reflecting approximately a 53% probability of the Fed raising interest rates again in October.

This outlook keeps short-term yields high, supporting the USD and limiting the ability of gold prices to translate weaker growth signals into a clear breakout above recent highs.

The Strait of Hormuz continues to be a significant geopolitical risk factor for gold, oil, and shipping markets. Oil prices fell in the morning session. Brent crude was around $101.94 per barrel, while WTI was at approximately $98.27 per barrel. The cooling oil prices somewhat mitigated the immediate inflationary shock and eased pressure on bond yields. However, the risk of a US-Iran conflict continued to support gold prices during corrections, while expectations of inflation, sensitive to energy prices, remained under scrutiny.

Updated prices for SJC gold bars and 99.99% pure gold rings at major domestic gold retailers at the close of trading this week (September 21st):

Saigon Jewelry Company (SJC): SJC gold bars 143.6 – 146.6 million VND/ounce; SJC gold rings 143.1 – 146.1 million VND/ounce.

DOJI Group: SJC gold bars 143.6 – 146.6 million VND/ounce; 9999 gold rings (Hung Thinh Vuong brand) 142.8 – 146.8 million VND/ounce.

PNJ Group: SJC gold bars priced at 143.6 – 146.6 million VND/ounce; PNJ 999.9 pure gold rings (Phuc Loc Tai) priced at 143.6 – 146.6 million VND/ounce.

The price of SJC gold bars at Bao Tin Minh Chau is listed at 142.6 – 146.6 million VND/ounce; price of plain gold rings at 142.6 – 146.6 million VND/ounce.

Gold prices unlikely to break through sharply.

Naeem Aslam, investment director at Zaye Capital Markets, noted that the gold market is currently being impacted from two sides simultaneously: the US-China trade risks are showing signs of easing, while geopolitical tensions related to Iran, sanctions against Russia, and ongoing security talks continue.

According to this assessment, the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset remains, but high yields continue to be the main obstacle preventing gold prices from making a clear breakout above recent highs.

The US bond market remains a significant pressure point for gold prices. Yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds are trading near 5%, after rising to levels not seen since 2007.

This pressure no longer stems solely from the Fed’s policies. Total US public debt currently stands at approximately $40.05 trillion. According to the latest baseline forecast from the US Congressional Budget Office (CBO), publicly held debt could increase from 101% of GDP in 2026 to 120% of GDP in 2036. During the same period, net interest payments are projected to rise from 3.3% of GDP to 4.6% of GDP.

For gold prices, these developments create mixed signals. Concerns about fiscal sustainability are a long-term factor that could support demand for finite assets like gold. However, in the short term, the direct impact is tighter financial conditions, rising real yields, and increased competition for a non-income-generating asset like gold.

Experts recommend that gold investors closely monitor interest rates, bond yields, and short-term USD movements, while avoiding decisions based on immediate price fluctuations. UBS continues to view gold as a portfolio diversification asset, while central bank buying demand is considered a key supporting factor by Goldman Sachs and the World Gold Council.