Gold Edges Higher as Traders Weigh Confusion Over US-Iran Talks
(Bloomberg) — Gold edged higher as traders assessed conflicting signals from the US and Iran about a diplomatic resolution to the war.
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Bullion rose as much as 1% to top $4,525 an ounce, largely erasing a loss in the previous session. Against a backdrop of renewed clashes near the Strait of Hormuz, US President Donald Trump said talks with Iran were continuing “at a rapid pace,” countering earlier threats from Tehran to suspend diplomacy and close the key waterway completely.
Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also offered differing accounts of a call about the fighting in Lebanon, underscoring the confusion around talks to end the conflict that’s triggered a global energy crisis and has now entered a fourth month. Oil ticked lower on Tuesday after its biggest gain in about a month.
“Oil is trading softer following yesterday’s price surge and that has fueled a fresh upside push in gold,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S. “Gold continues to dance to the tune of oil given the link to inflation and, with that, movements in rates, yields and the dollar.”
Gold fell sharply after the conflict began in late February and remains about 14% below its immediate pre-war level, though has traded in a narrow range for the last few weeks. Though usually seen as a haven asset in times of crisis, bullion has moved largely in an inverse relationship with oil as the energy crisis has fanned fears of higher inflation.
Any resumption of energy and trade traffic through Hormuz would ease concerns around rising consumer prices, making it more likely that central banks will loosen monetary policy. Lower borrowing costs are a tailwind for gold, which doesn’t pay interest.
The Federal Reserve, however, may have less reason to cut rates to stimulate consumption after US manufacturing activity expanded in May at the fastest pace in four years – the fifth straight month of growth, according to data released on Monday.
The outlook for gold “remains contingent on developments in the Middle East,” Rhona O’Connell, head of market analysis for EMEA and Asia at StoneX Financial Ltd., said in a note. “Although some progress has been made, the key issues remain unresolved, meaning that prices are likely to remain range-bound, potentially with a downward bias on the back of interest-rate expectations.”
