Gold Price Drivers: US-Iran Talks, Oil, Fed Signals: Rediff Moneynews
Analysts say gold prices hinge on US-Iran talks, oil movement, and Fed signals this week. Macro data and interest rate expectations key.
Speeches from US Federal Reserve officials during the week could significantly influence interest rate expectations and determine the near-term direction for bullion prices, they added.
“Momentum for precious metals such as gold and silver still looks sideways to corrective,” Pranav Mer, Vice President, EBG – Commodity & Currency Research, JM Financial Services Ltd, said.
Focus will remain on advancement of peace talks between the US and Iran, with ceasefire and negotiation time extended another 60 days; a positive outcome may further weigh on oil and gold prices as safe-haven demand eases, he added.
On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures fell Rs 3,104, or nearly 2 per cent to close the week at Rs 1.55 lakh per 10 grams, while silver declined Rs 4,848, or 1.8 per cent to end at Rs 2.66 lakh per kilogram.
In the overseas markets, Comex gold futures rose marginally to finish the week at USD 4,593 per ounce, while silver edged lower at USD 75.87 per ounce.
According to Mer, gold prices have remained under selling pressure in recent weeks amid a sharp decline in crude oil prices and fading safe-haven demand following reports of progress in the US-Iran peace talks.
He said officials from both countries have confirmed a preliminary draft of the proposed agreement, though the deal is still awaiting approval from US President Donald Trump.
Analysts noted that a strong rebound in global equities, liquidation in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the absence of fresh bullish triggers have capped gains in precious metals.
At the same time, concerns over persistent inflationary pressures continue to support expectations of a hawkish stance from major global central banks limiting the appeal of assets such as gold.
However, downside in bullion prices was cushioned by bargain buying at lower levels, lingering bullion demand amid escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine, and a steady US dollar, they said.
According to analysts, gold and silver head into the new week with investors focused squarely on the health of the US economy and labour market, as a busy calendar of economic data releases could significantly influence Fed rate expectations.
Pranav Mer said that in the beginning of the week, focus will be on the manufacturing and services PMI numbers from across major economies, and closing the week with GDP numbers from EU and US Nonfarm Payroll and employment readings.
Focus will also be on the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) monetary policy on Friday on the domestic market, he said.
