Here’s What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

Shareholders in Shake Shack Inc. (NYSE:SHAK) had a terrible week, as shares crashed 32% to US$69.24 in the week since its latest first-quarter results. Things were not great overall, with a surprise (statutory) loss of US$0.01 per share on revenues of US$367m, even though the analysts had been expecting a profit. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Shake Shack’s 26 analysts is for revenues of US$1.66b in 2026. This would reflect a meaningful 11% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 35% to US$1.38. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.65b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.39 in 2026. So it’s pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there’s been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Shake Shack

With no major changes to earnings forecasts, the consensus price target fell 15% to US$98.23, suggesting that the analysts might have previously been hoping for an earnings upgrade. There’s another way to think about price targets though, and that’s to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Shake Shack, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$150 and the most bearish at US$71.00 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2026 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 15% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 17% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 9.0% annually. So it’s pretty clear that Shake Shack is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there’s been no major change in the business’ prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it’s tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company’s earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Shake Shack going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.