How Will 3M Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
3M (NYSE:MMM) is set to report its earnings on Tuesday, July 21, 2026. The company has $85 billion in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $25 billion, and it was operationally profitable with $4.9 billion in operating profits and net income of $2.8 billion. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
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3M’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 10 positive and 10 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 50% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 58% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 10 positive returns = 5.1%, and median of the 10 negative returns = -2.6%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4/21/2026 | -1.9% | -3.7% | -1.3% |
| 1/20/2026 | -7.0% | -4.9% | -1.7% |
| 10/21/2025 | 7.7% | 8.8% | 7.6% |
| 7/18/2025 | -3.7% | -6.1% | -4.2% |
| 4/22/2025 | 8.1% | 9.4% | 22.3% |
| 1/21/2025 | 4.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% |
| 10/22/2024 | -2.3% | -3.4% | -4.4% |
| 7/26/2024 | 23.0% | 22.3% | 26.3% |
| 4/30/2024 | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.6% |
| 1/23/2024 | -11.0% | -10.8% | -13.7% |
| 10/24/2023 | 5.3% | 4.6% | 11.5% |
| 7/25/2023 | 5.3% | 6.9% | -4.1% |
| 4/25/2023 | -0.7% | 0.8% | -2.7% |
| 1/24/2023 | -6.2% | -8.2% | -10.0% |
| 10/25/2022 | 0.1% | 6.3% | 9.9% |
| 7/26/2022 | 4.9% | 6.9% | 6.8% |
| 4/26/2022 | -2.9% | -1.8% | -0.9% |
| 1/25/2022 | 0.5% | -3.9% | -15.6% |
| 10/26/2021 | -0.1% | -1.5% | -0.8% |
| 7/27/2021 | -0.6% | -2.1% | -2.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 10 | 8 |
| # Negative | 10 | 10 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 5.1% | 6.9% | 8.7% |
| Median Negative | -2.6% | -3.8% | -3.4% |
| Max Positive | 23.0% | 22.3% | 26.3% |
| Max Negative | -11.0% | -10.8% | -15.6% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -3.2% | 24.4% | 19.3% |
| 3Y History | 1.9% | 27.8% | 20.1% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of 3M stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before 3M. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| MMM Earnings Dates | MMM | HON |
|---|---|---|
| 7/26/2024 | 23.0% | -5.5% |
| 4/30/2024 | 4.7% | -0.2% |
| 10/24/2023 | 5.3% | -2.6% |
| 10/26/2021 | -0.1% | 0.4% |
| 7/27/2021 | -0.6% | 0.5% |
| CORRELATION | 86.4% |
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