J. Rotbart & Co. Releases Market Analysis on Gold’s Weekly Decline Amid U.S.-Iran Conflict
Spot gold fell about 2.6% in the week to 17 July and briefly traded below US$4,000 an ounce, even as conflict between the United States and Iran escalated. J. Rotbart & Co. explains why the inflation and interest-rate consequences of war can outweigh gold’s defensive appeal in the short term.
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Hong Kong, HONG KONG, July 20, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — J. Rotbart & Co., an international precious-metals consultancy specializing in the acquisition, secure storage, and structuring of physical bullion, releases a market analysis examining why spot gold fell about 2.6% in the week to 17 July during the conflict between the United States and Iran. The analysis notes that spot gold briefly traded below US$4,000 an ounce, its lowest level since 1 July, even as Brent crude rose roughly 16% over the same five sessions. J. Rotbart & Co. explains that higher oil and shipping costs can feed inflation expectations, support higher interest-rate expectations, and increase the cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold. The release also reviews physical-market conditions in Singapore and Hong Kong and discusses allocated precious-metal ownership and insured transfers between vaults.
Mr. Joshua Rotbart (LLM, MBA), Founder at JRotbart.com
Few expect that from a war week. Over the same five sessions, Brent crude rose roughly 16% as strikes near the Strait of Hormuz restricted oil flows. Futures markets priced a roughly 58% chance of a US interest-rate increase in September, according to CME FedWatch data.
Why conflict pushed gold down, not up
The same event is pulling gold in opposite directions. Geopolitical risk normally lifts demand for defensive assets. But this conflict has also raised the price of oil and shipping. Higher energy costs feed into inflation. If inflation persists, interest rates tend to rise, and bond yields rise with them.
That matters because gold pays no income. When cash and bonds yield more, the cost of holding gold goes up. Expectations of higher US rates have also supported the US dollar, which makes gold dearer for buyers in other currencies. This week, those forces appear to have outweighed gold’s immediate defensive support.
“War does not automatically lift gold, and it never has,” said Joshua Rotbart, Founder of J. Rotbart & Co. “Markets weigh several forces at once. This week, the inflation and interest-rate effects of higher oil prices carried more weight than the instinct to seek shelter. That is normal market behaviour, not a sign that gold has stopped serving a defensive role.“
