Ken Paxton’s problem with Republicans could prove costly

Ken Paxton still has a Republican problem.

Don’t take my word for it. The last batch of major public polls in the race for the U.S. Senate in Texas over the last two weeks tell the story, with Paxton still underperforming with GOP voters in each.

While Paxton’s 85% support among Republicans in a Texas Southern University poll released on Tuesday might seem solid, political operatives generally count on that number being over 90%, especially in competitive races. Gov. Greg Abbott, who is also up for reelection this year, is winning 90% of Republicans in the same poll.

Compare that to Democrat James Talarico, who had his own bruising primary battle with U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett, in the spring — and yet still had 97% of Democrats in his corner heading into August, according to the TSU poll.

And a Fox News poll released last week took it further, showing one quarter of people who described themselves as non-MAGA Republicans back Talarico over Paxton.

Both those polls show Talarico with a narrow lead in the race, but within the margin of error.

It all shows that despite Paxton’s dominating win over U.S. Sen. John Cornyn in the GOP runoff in May, there are still fences to be mended with disaffected Republicans. That work began immediately after the runoff, with Paxton and his team reaching out to big Cornyn backers in the U.S. Senate and even to Texas House Republicans who led the effort to impeach Paxton in 2023.

The fruits of that labor showed a little on Tuesday night in Collin County when one of Paxton’s biggest GOP critics in the Texas House took the stage to introduce him to a packed rally.

“You might be surprised to see me standing in front of you tonight,” state Rep. Jeff Leach, R-Plano, said as he stepped on stage.

And Leach was quick to address the elephant in the room, warning his fellow party faithful that there are still people who say, “I just can’t get over certain things, and I just, at the very least, I might leave that race empty. I might just not vote in that race.”

“You cannot do that,” he warned the crowd.

Paxton’s problem is understandable given Cornyn and his allies spent over $100 million tearing him down in an unsuccessful effort to win the primary.

Where Paxton is campaigning also hints at the problem. Two weeks ago, Paxton was in ruby red Sherman, making a pitch to Republicans, surrounded by other GOP leaders. On Tuesday, it was in Allen, another GOP bastion in the heart of Collin County where he began his political career. On Wednesday night he was expected to be Houston for a rally promoted heavily among the GOP faithful in Harris County.

While Paxton continues to work to unify his base, Talarico is branching out to more battleground communities, hoping to grab those non-MAGA Republicans in the Fox Poll. On Wednesday night, Talarico was holding his own rally in Arlington, a traditionally more competitive area in Tarrant County, the state’s biggest purple county that flips between Democrats and Republicans in big races.

Reporter Casey Murray contributed to this report.