Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL) Beat Earnings Estimates, Is It Still Below Fair Value?

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Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL) drew attention after its second quarter 2026 earnings release, which highlighted Rezdiffra sales growth, stronger patient uptake, a smaller than expected quarterly loss, and revenue ahead of market estimates.

See our latest analysis for Madrigal Pharmaceuticals.

Despite solid interest in Rezdiffra and pipeline updates, Madrigal Pharmaceuticals’ share price has slipped recently, with the 30 day share price return down 8.16% and the year to date share price return down 16.97%, while the 1 year total shareholder return is 63.01%.

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The recent pullback leaves Madrigal Pharmaceuticals trading below some valuation models, even after a strong run. Is more of Rezdiffra’s potential already reflected in the price, or does the current setup still point to meaningful upside ahead?

Most Popular Narrative: 27.3% Undervalued

The most followed valuation narrative for Madrigal Pharmaceuticals sets a fair value well above the last close of $493.11, framing the recent pullback as a discount to that estimate and anchoring expectations firmly on Rezdiffra’s long term role in MASH.

The rapid uptake and long-term patent protection of Rezdiffra, supported by a new U.S. patent that extends exclusivity to 2045, provides decades of protected revenue opportunity; this increases the likelihood of sustained top-line growth and supports margin expansion due to extended pricing power.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what sits behind that confidence in Madrigal Pharmaceuticals? The core of this narrative is an aggressive ramp in revenue, a sharp swing to strong margins, and a future earnings base that needs to support a higher valuation multiple than many biotech peers.

Result: Fair Value of $678.71 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, this Madrigal Pharmaceuticals narrative still hinges on Rezdiffra staying on track, and on competition or reimbursement pushback not biting harder than expected.

Find out about the key risks to this Madrigal Pharmaceuticals narrative.

Next Steps

With sentiment around Madrigal Pharmaceuticals clearly split, this is a good time to move quickly and weigh the facts yourself. To understand what investors see as the brighter spots in the story, start with the 3 key rewards.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include MDGL.

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