Nasdaq Index: Can AI Stocks Withstand $90 Oil and a Global Bond Rout?

The market received mixed economic signals Tuesday. Manufacturing growth slowed in August. Job openings increased modestly in July. Neither report gave buyers a reason to bet the Fed is stepping back from inflation.

What to Watch

ADP employment data arrives Wednesday. Friday’s August nonfarm payrolls report is the number that can move the rate picture. A firm payroll number with stronger wage growth keeps yields elevated and makes the Nasdaq’s job harder. A softer report would give technology buyers their first real opening. The Nasdaq does not need a major bond rally to stabilize. It needs the 10-year to stop making new highs and September rate odds to come down. Until then, crude and the long end of the curve are running the tape.

The Nasdaq Composite is pressing against its 50-day moving average at 25,954.48 with the swing bottom at 25,910.82 right below. Losing that level triggers an acceleration into the retracement zone at 25,650.43 to 25,361.31. The AI trade is still the market’s biggest source of leadership. Tuesday showed it is not a hedge against a global yield surge. The names that led August need the bond market to settle down before buyers come back.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.