NFC South Predictions, Betting Splits

The NFC South is expected to be one of the most interesting divisions in the NFL this season. There is fair reason for optimism for all four teams in the division, as each holds +400 odds or fewer to win the division on DraftKings Sportsbook. This marks the only NFL division in which this is the case.

While the Carolina Panthers are looking to defend the 2025 NFC South title, it came down to tiebreakers with the Buccaneers and Falcons also finishing with an 8-9 record. The Saints rounded out the season in last place in the division with a 6-11 record, but finished the season by winning four of their final five games as Tyler Shough settled into the starting quarterback role. 

There are plenty of ways to get involved in the action on DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s take a look at some of the trends and betting splits for DraftKings customers in some notable futures markets.

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NFC South Best Bets and Betting Splits:

NFC South Winner Betting Splits:

Plenty are buying into the Tyler Shough hype down in New Orleans, as 33% of the betting handle and 29% of the bets placed for the NFC South winner are backing the Saints. This is despite them holding the second-best odds at +270.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers enter as the divisional favorite at +170 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. Despite this, only 14% of the betting handle is being backed by DraftKings Sportsbook bettors. However, the Buccaneers lead the division with 38% of the bets placed backing them to produce the divisional win.

The Atlanta Falcons make up 31% of the betting handle, the second-most in the division, but an NFC South-worst 14% of total bets by DraftKings Sportsbook customers. This leaves the last year’s divisional champion Carolina Panthers. Just 22% of the betting handle and 19% of the total bets placed are backing Carolina to win the NFC South for the second consecutive season, ranking third in both categories.

Analysis:

There is plenty of public momentum for the Saints, but this feels a bit like putting the cart before the horse in my mind. It is extremely possible for New Orleans to further take a step forward this season, while still falling short of winning the division.

Instead, it feels like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are not receiving the respect they have earned the past few seasons. Last year’s playoff absence snapped a five-year streak of making the playoffs and four straight seasons of winning the NFC South. The loss of Mike Evans is notable, and there could be some growing pains with the change in offensive coordinator. But this is an offense that could be among the league leaders if everything clicks, and expect Baker Mayfield’s contractual uncertainty to serve as motivation.

There are bigger questions about each other team in the division, and a higher floor for this Tampa Bay team with eight or more wins in six straight seasons. Expect last year’s disappointment to serve as more of a wake-up call than a sign of things to come. There feels like a real chance that Mayfield is ready to go on a burn the world tour in which he leaps out of the gates this year, and this could be enough to put the Buccaneers in the drivers seat for the divisional outlook. The urge for change is understandable, but I am going back to the Buccaneers this season. 

NFC South Win Total Trends:

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have the standard win total for this season set at 8.5 wins on DraftKings Sportsbook. The under is currently favored at -136 odds, while the Buccaneers hold +115 odds of winning nine or more games. This outlook has inverse betting splits from DraftKings Sportsbook bettors. 77% of the bets, but just 37% of the betting handle, are backing Tampa Bay to win over 8.5 games. This leaves just 23% of the bets placed but 63% of the betting handle backing the Buccaneers to win fewer than 8.5 games this season.

Looking to build off their strong finish to last season, the New Orleans Saints have their season win total set at 7.5. Kellen Moore’s group is a narrow favorite to surpass this with -120 odds of winning over 7.5 games and hold +100 odds of remaining under. An impressive 96% of the betting handle and 94% of bets placed by DraftKings Sportsbook customers are backing New Orleans to go over the win total. 

Entering with the same win total, the Carolina Panthers hold -136 odds of remaining under 7.5 wins this season and +115 odds of winning eight or more games. 80% of the bets placed are backing the Panthers to win over 7.5 games, but this makes up just 45% of the betting handle from DraftKings Sportsbook bettors. This leaves 20% of the bets but 55% of the betting handle backing Carolina to be held to seven or fewer wins.

The Atlanta Falcons also enter with a season-long win total of 7.5. Atlanta is a -140 favorite to be held under this win total and hold +120 odds of winning eight or more games this year. Looking at the data from DraftKings Sportsbook customers, 91% of the bets placed and 96% of the betting handle are backing the Falcons to exceed this line. This leaves just 9% of the bets and 4% of the betting handle expecting Atlanta to be held to seven or fewer games.

NFC South Playoff & Super Bowl Outlook:

There is not a ton of optimism in the futures markets for any of these NFC South teams. Neither the Buccaneers, Falcons, Panthers nor Saints crack the top 10 teams in Super Bowl betting by number of bets or handle among DraftKings Sportsbook bettors.

The Buccaneers hold the best odds in the division to lift the Lombardi at +5500 on DraftKings Sportsbook. These are the 20th-best odds among all teams in the NFL. The Panthers and Saints are tied for the 24th-best odds at +9000, while the Falcons are tied for the 26th-best odds at +13000.

However, the Falcons are the lone team in the division to crack into the top 10 in the betting splits to win the NFC. 4% of the betting handle and 2% of bets placed on DraftKings Sportsbook are backing Atlanta to win the NFC at +5500 odds. The Arizona Cardinals are the only other team in the NFC with longer odds at +20000. Looking around the rest of the division, the Buccaneers hold the ninth-best odds of winning the NFC at +2200, while the Saints and Panthers hold +3700 and +3800, which rank 13th and 14th in the NFC. The Panthers did sneak into the 10th biggest market share in the futures market of odds to get the NFC first seed. 3% of bets placed and 3% of the betting handle are backing them to earn the top seed entering the playoffs.

On the negative side, the Panthers, Saints, and Falcons each find themselves among the most-best teams to have the fewest wins on the season. Carolina holds 2% of bets placed and 2% of the betting handle, while Atlanta and New Orleans make up 1% in each category.

Best NFC South Player Futures

Looking towards the awards and player futures, there is not a ton of backing across the NFC South. No player in the NFC South cracks the top 10 in MVP betting percentage or handle. Baker Mayfield is the player in the division with the best odds, tied for the 19th-best odds at +4500 on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Bijan Robinson holds the second-best odds for winning Offensive Player of the Year at +900 odds on DraftKings, trailing only Jahmyr Gibbs at +600 odds. Robinson is backed by 10% of the betting handle and 13% of the bets placed, trailing only Gibbs in each category.

Saints’ wide receiver Jordyn Tyson is being backed by 6% of the bets and 8% of the betting handle to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. The eighth overall pick holds the fourth-best odds on DraftKings at +600 odds. Tua Tagovailoa is the lone other player of note in the futures market, making up 4% of the bets and 2% of the betting handle to win Comeback Player of the Year at +4000 odds.

NFC South Bets FAQ

What are the best NFC South bets for the 2026 NFL season?

The featured NFC South bets include the Buccaneers to win the division, the Buccaneers to win over 8.5 games, the Saints to win over 7.5 games, Bijan Robinson to win Offensive Player of the Year and Jordyn Tyson to win Offensive Rookie of the Year.

What are NFL betting splits?

Betting splits show the percentage of tickets (bets) and money (handle) placed on each side of a wager. Comparing the two can provide insight into whether a market is being driven primarily by public bettors or larger wagers.

How should betting splits be used?

Betting splits should be one factor among many when evaluating a wager. They can help identify popular sides or where larger amounts of money are being wagered, but they should be combined with matchup analysis, injuries and market movement before placing a bet.

When do NFL futures bets close?

Most NFL futures markets remain open until the affected team’s first regular-season game, although odds and availability can change throughout the preseason.