Political expert warns Iran ceasefire collapse could ‘spin out of control’ as religious missteps dog Trump

WASHINGTON, D.C. – A political analyst warned Sunday that the United States and Iran are on a collision course if diplomats fail to reach a deal before a two-week ceasefire expires Wednesday, as the Trump administration simultaneously grapples with self-inflicted damage to its standing among religious conservatives.

Conflict overseas

What’s next:

Vice President J.D. Vance, joined by U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, is expected to return to Islamabad Monday for a new round of negotiations with Iranian officials. 

The talks come after an initial round last weekend failed to produce an agreement, and as Iran’s military has closed the Strait of Hormuz to Western shipping in response to an ongoing U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports.

What they’re saying:

Nolan Higdon, a political history lecturer at UC Santa Cruz, said the core problem is that the key parties remain far apart on basic terms.

“The countries involved, particularly the United States, Israel and Iran, are on really different pages,” Higdon said. 

Key sticking points include whether Lebanon was covered under the original ceasefire agreement and whether the reopening of the strait was to be immediate.

President Trump, writing on social media early Sunday, again threatened to resume bombing Iranian infrastructure — including bridges and power plants — if no deal is reached. 

He also suggested he may not extend the ceasefire even while maintaining the naval blockade.

Higdon said the window to prevent a broader conflict is narrowing. 

“It seems like this is escalating in real time,” he said. “If there’s not some sort of end to it very quickly, I think this could continue to spin out of control.”

Controversy at home

The other side:

On the domestic front, the administration faces a separate and compounding crisis centered on religion. 

A social media post depicting Trump in what many interpreted as a Jesus-like image, followed by a public exchange between Vance and newly elected Pope Leo, drew sharp criticism — including from within the president’s own coalition.

“I think you saw a lot of long-term Trump supporters share publicly their disdain” for the Jesus image post, Higdon said. He added that Vance appearing to lecture the pope on theology risks alienating evangelicals, whom he described as a cornerstone of Republican support going back decades.

Dig deeper:

The controversy deepened when Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth recited what commentators identified as a line from the film “Pulp Fiction” during a prayer, mistaking it for scripture. 

Trump also drew criticism on Easter for remarks that some interpreted as dismissive of faith, including from conservative commentator Tucker Carlson.

Both the Vatican and Vance’s office have since sought to de-escalate their public dispute, with the pope clarifying his criticism of wartime leaders was not directed specifically at Trump.

Higdon was unconvinced the damage had been contained, at least for Republicans.

“This really is just another one of those kind of self-inflicted wounds,” he said. “The Republican Party is going against its base. That’s generally not good for a party.”