Trump ratings may complicate Texas GOP plan to flip 5 seats in House

Texas Republicans’ controversial move last summer to redraw the state’s congressional maps with the aim of flipping five Democratic seats this fall may be complicated by President Donald Trump’s low approval ratings, experts say.

High prices on gas and groceries, along with a nationwide immigration crackdown that has sometimes turned violent, have led pollsters to predict a “blue wave” in November’s midterms. The GOP counted on Texas Latinos, in particular, to maintain the support they showed for Trump in 2024, political scientists said, but may have inadvertently weakened some of their advantages as the president’s approval rating plummets among the demographic. 

Several South Texas districts, including two that were redrawn to favor Republicans by double digits, now appear to be legitimate toss-ups, experts said. The shift could even influence contests in deep-red areas like the newly redrawn Congressional District 9 east of Houston, though the state’s political experts still give Republican Alex Mealer an edge over Democrat Leticia Gutierrez.

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More than 60% of Latino Texans now have an unfavorable view of the president, according to polling by the Texas Politics Project, one of the highest rates in nearly a decade. 

Even a few Democratic pickups could determine control of the U.S. House for the last two years of Trump’s term, said Sean Theriault, a political scientist at the University of Texas at Austin.

“South Texas districts are going to be more competitive… and I think that as the election gets closer and closer we’ll see them start drifting toward the toss-up category,” he said. “Those districts I think are going to determine who’s the majority (in the House).” 

While Democrats are growing optimistic about the South Texas races, other redrawn districts now held by Democrats still appear to favor Republicans. Congressional District 32 now lies in staunchly conservative suburbs of Dallas and East Texas, while District 35, in the San Antonio area, also appears to favor the GOP. 

CD-9, too, is still rated “solid red,” according to the Cook Political Report.

The south Houston seat held by Democratic U.S. Rep. Al Green for more than 20 years now covers predominantly Latino territory in conservative pockets of Harris and Liberty counties. Democrats hope the district’s new demographics might favor Gutierrez given Trump’s dip in support among Latinos. But political observers still make Mealer, who is campaigning with a 37-to-1 fundraising advantage, the heavy favorite. 

“Republicans have made themselves a little bit more vulnerable, but the national environment would have to get much, much worse before they’ve put themselves in any big danger” in CD-9, Theriault said. 

Texas Democratic Chair Kendall Scudder said the party is mounting aggressive campaigns in every district but acknowledged that winning even one of the seats the Republican redistricting targeted would represent a success.

“If Republicans fail to steal five seats, that is a huge win for Democrats because the dice are loaded and it’s been stacked against us,” Scudder said.

Mealer, who narrowly lost the 2022 race for Harris County judge and beat state Rep. Briscoe Cain, R-Deer Park, in the Republican primary, said that she “simply will not be outworked.” 

“I understand and have the skillset as a small business owner in the district and a former oil and gas banker to tackle the issues that will strengthen our economy and make life safer and more affordable,” Mealer said in a statement.

If Gutierrez had political experience, strong name recognition or a mountain of campaign cash, the CD-9 race might risk growing competitive, said Rice University political scientist Mark Jones. 

But Mealer has raised more than $2 million to Gutierrez’s $55,000, suggesting that Gutierrez will pull off an upset only in the event of a “blue tsunami,” Jones said. 

“It becomes a vicious circle. She’s an unknown (candidate) who doesn’t appear to have a chance, therefore she’s going to have a tough time raising money, which means she’s going to remain unknown,” Jones said. 

“I grew up in Houston’s East End, attended Milby High School, raised my family here, and have spent years showing up for communities across this district — not when there was an election or a camera, but when families needed someone in their corner,” Gutierrez said.

An environmental advocate who worked in the refinery corridors that make up much of the new district, Gutierrez also said voters will rally to her cause not because of her Latina identity but because of her roots in the community.

“The families I meet across this district aren’t asking whether their representative looks like them,” Gutierrez said. “They’re asking why it’s become so hard to afford a home, why a trip to the grocery store costs so much more than it did a few years ago, why healthcare keeps getting further out of reach, why the air their children breathe is still polluted, and why it feels like government is more responsive to powerful interests than to ordinary people.”

Scudder pushed back against the notion that Democrats had abandoned the District 9 race, calling Gutierrez a “phenomenal candidate.” Only people, not polls or campaign funds, decide elections, he said. 

A campaign spokesman for Gov. Greg Abbott, who led the push for redistricting at Trump’s behest, dismissed Democrats’ dreams of victory. 

“Every election, Democrats predict Texas is about to turn blue,” said Eduardo Leal. “Every election, Texans reject their agenda of open borders, higher taxes, and soft-on-crime policies because they know Republican leadership delivers results.”

Democrats are not taking any chances with fundraising in South Texas. Donors have plowed millions of dollars into the campaigns of Rep. Henry Cuellar, D-Laredo, and Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, D-McAllen, whose districts were targeted in the redistricting effort, despite both congressmen’s propensity for occasionally bucking the party.

Cuellar is also dealing with blowback for the presidential pardon he received from Trump for 2024 federal corruption charges.

But Álvaro Corral, a political scientist at the University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, said the incumbents have a real chance to hold onto their seats despite the new political tilt of their districts.

“The question for the GOP, not just in Texas but nationwide, is not whether it’s going to be bad but how bad it’s going to be,” Corral said. “So even if on paper Vicente Gonzalez and Henry Cuellar are unpopular among their Democratic base and Republicans, because of the anti-Trump backlash that might occur they may very well potentially keep their seats.”

Max Scher, a spokesperson for Cuellar, pointed out that Cuellar and other Democrats in the district still won their elections in 2024 despite Trump carrying the top of the ticket.

“Henry Cuellar has built his career fighting for South Texas first, even when it means breaking from his own party,” Scher said. “That independence is exactly why he’ll win in November.”

Neither Cuellar’s GOP challenger, Tano Tijerina, nor Gonzalez and his Republican opponent, Eric Flores, responded to requests for comment. 

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By redrawing Cuellar and Gonzalez’s districts to lean red, experts said Republicans may have had the unintentional effect of weakening neighboring districts they already held. One example is Congressional District 15, which is represented by U.S. Rep. Monica De La Cruz, R-Edinburg, and would have favored Trump by 18 points in 2024.

Yet Tejano music star Bobby Pulido, who is running as the Democratic nominee in that district, has mounted “a serious challenge,” according to the Cook Political Report, which last month updated its projection of the race from “Likely Republican” to “Leaning Republican.”  

“He’s been a bit of an X factor here in the Valley and South Texas, because there’s such a level of enthusiasm and attention for him that even incumbents wish they had,” Corral said. 

De La Cruz’s campaign manager, James Shook, said “South Texas will stand with Monica again in November” and called attention to a 2018 incident in which Pulido played a concert at an Edinburg middle school after one of his bandmates had been convicted for child sexual abuse.

“Congresswoman De La Cruz is a working mom from the Valley who has protected Social Security and Medicare, cut taxes for working families, and fought to make healthcare more affordable for our community,” Shook said. 

Pulido’s campaign did not return a request for comment. He has previously said he was unaware of his bandmate’s criminal history and had him fired in 2021 after learning of domestic abuse allegations. 

Even with several South Texas districts in limbo, Texas Republicans are likely to come out ahead as a result of the 2025 redistricting campaign, experts said, even if the predicted “blue wave” occurs.

“If they flip any seats, or come away with this not losing seats,” Corral said, “I think that’s a victory, and they will take that as a victory.”