10-year yield nears 5% as oil prices rattle bond markets
Mortgage rates have climbed back toward 7% after briefly dipping below 6% earlier in the year. Consumer price data due Friday and a Federal Open Market Committee meeting scheduled for September 15–16 have now become the two most closely watched events in the mortgage market.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 6.71% for the week ending September 3, according to Freddie Mac‘s Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) — its highest level since July 31, 2025, when it stood at 6.72%.https://t.co/FWWow9eJM7
— Mortgage Professional America Magazine (@MPAMagazineUS) September 7, 2026
A counterintuitive case for a rate increase
With rate relief elusive, Melissa Cohn, regional vice president at William Raveis Mortgage and a 44-year industry veteran, is putting forward an argument that cuts against conventional expectations: a Fed rate hike could actually push mortgage rates lower.
Her reasoning is rooted in bond market psychology. Inflation remains well above the Fed’s 2% target, and Cohn argues that a decisive move to tighten would signal to bond traders that the central bank is serious, restoring confidence in longer-dated Treasurys and pulling yields down with it.
“A rate hike would probably be necessary, and I believe that when or if the Fed does raise rates, they’ll put their money where their mouth is about fighting inflation,” Cohn said.
“That could actually provide relief in the bond market.”
