Assessing Suncor Energy’s Valuation As Q4 Earnings And 2026 Guidance Come Into Focus
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Suncor Energy (TSX:SU) is in focus as investors prepare for its February 3, 2026 quarterly earnings report, with expectations for lower EPS and revenue, as well as recently updated 2026 production and capital spending guidance.
See our latest analysis for Suncor Energy.
Suncor’s share price has moved higher ahead of the earnings release, with a 1-day share price return of 1.21%, a 30-day share price return of 16.36%, and a 90-day share price return of 25.24%. Its 1-year total shareholder return of 39.06% and very large 5-year total shareholder return of roughly 3x suggest momentum has been building over both shorter and longer periods as investors weigh updated guidance and upcoming Investor Day commentary.
If Suncor’s recent run has you thinking about where else capital is moving in energy and related areas, it could be a good time to check out aerospace and defense stocks as another area of the market to research.
With Suncor trading above the average analyst price target yet still showing an estimated intrinsic discount, the key question is simple: is the recent rally already fully valued, or is the market still underestimating future growth?
At a last close of CA$72.85 versus a narrative fair value of CA$68.05, the most followed view sees Suncor trading ahead of its intrinsic estimate, with the upcoming earnings report acting as a key test.
The updated fair value estimate for Suncor Energy edges higher to $68.05 from $67.15, reflecting analysts’ mixed but generally constructive price target revisions and ongoing debate around revenue growth expectations, profit margins, and a future P/E near 15x.
Want to see what underpins that higher fair value even as revenue expectations are pared back and profit margins nudged lower, while the future earnings multiple edges higher and buybacks steadily shrink the share count? The full narrative lays out the cash flow path, the discount rate, and how those moving parts add up to CA$68.05.
Result: Fair Value of CA$68.05 (OVERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, there are still real swing factors to watch, including potential long term pressure from higher carbon costs on oil sands and the risk of structurally weaker fossil fuel demand.
Find out about the key risks to this Suncor Energy narrative.
