Gold Nears Two-Month High Ahead of Wednesday’s CPI Report
Gold pushed toward $4,450 an ounce Tuesday, its best level in about two months, as a stalled U.S.-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz kept oil elevated and traders braced for a Wednesday inflation report that could decide whether a September Fed rate hike is really off the table. Silver pushed above $65 for a second straight session, extending its climb to a seven-week high.
The rally traces back to Friday’s jobs report, which showed the U.S. economy shed 23,000 positions in July. That knocked the market’s odds of a September hike down to 46% from 67% a week earlier, based on Kalshi pricing. But oil is complicating the dovish read. Brent crude climbed toward $90 a barrel and WTI topped $84 Tuesday morning, both extending Monday’s surge of more than 5% after President Trump demanded Iran pay compensation for war damage, a fresh sticking point that undercut last week’s optimism that a deal with Oman to unblock the strait was close.
“There appears to be a gulf, no pun intended, between the U.S. and Iran,” Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, told Reuters.
Economists surveyed by Kiplinger expect Wednesday’s July CPI report to show headline inflation up 0.1% on the month and 3.4% annually, with core prices rising 2.5% year over year. Either number lands in a market still deciding whether cooling jobs data or oil-driven inflation risk wins out before the Fed’s September meeting.
Barrick Mining took the hit in the mining complex, sliding as much as 9.7% Monday, its worst day since March, after agreeing to fold its Fourmile discovery into the Nevada Gold Mines joint venture for what analysts called too small a check. Newmont will pay Barrick $1.95 billion and contribute its Mike and Fiberline projects, resolving a dispute that had held up Barrick’s planned North American IPO. RBC’s Josh Wolfson pegged all of Fourmile at roughly $11 billion, putting Newmont’s 38.5% share closer to $4.2 billion, well above what it paid. Barrick CEO Mark Hill defended the math on an earnings call, telling analysts the deal’s total value, including resolved litigation, runs closer to $4 billion. Barrick shares closed Monday near $40.88; Newmont gained about 3%.
Underneath the daily swings, the structural gold bid keeps building. China’s central bank added 640,000 ounces, or about 20 tons, to its reserves in July, its 21st straight month of buying and the biggest single addition since 2023. The World Gold Council says global central bank gold purchases jumped more than 60% year over year in the second quarter, to 289 tonnes.
