Hochul’s lead over Blakeman sees little change

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul’s lead over Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman in the race for governor remains virtually unchanged in the latest Siena University poll of likely voters released Wednesday.

Hochul’s nine-point lead over Blakeman (50-41%) puts her challenger within single digits. Hochul led 49-39% over Blakeman in August’s poll, and remains a noticeable drop from her 52-32% lead in June’s Siena poll of registered voters.

“With six weeks until election day, voters offer good news to both Hochul and Blakeman. She now has the support of 50% of voters and saw her favorability and job approval ratings edge into positive territory. He now trails by single digits – well, nine points – in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than two-to-one,” Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said in a statement. “At this time four years ago, Hochul led Lee Zeldin 17 points, 54-37%, before going on to win by six points.”

According to the latest poll, while only half of likely voters say they are supporting the incumbent, two-thirds of likely voters think she will win, including 37% of Republicans.

“Given a nine-point race, it might seem surprising that two-thirds of voters think Hochul will win,” Greenberg said. “On the other hand, voters haven’t elected a Republican governor in 24 years, and there is that two-to-one Democratic enrollment edge, so it may not be surprising that more than one-third of Republicans think Hochul will win, as do 61% of independents, although only 39% of independents currently plan to vote for her.”

By a 51-30% margin, voters say they believe President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Blakeman will be a negative for his campaign, while expressing, by a 50-30% margin, that New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s endorsement of Hochul will be a positive for her campaign.

Likely voters were also asked who they felt would do a better job in making prices more affordable for the average New Yorker, keeping New Yorkers safe and addressing undocumented immigrants living in the state.

“Voters still give Hochul small leads – between four and nine points – on making prices more affordable, keeping New Yorkers safe, and addressing undocumented immigrants living in the state. In August, Hochul led Blakeman by between one and seven points on those three issues,” Greenberg said. “Voters say the five-year incumbent governor has the ‘right stuff to be governor’ by only 47-42%. Voters are evenly split, 40-40%, on the five-year Nassau County executive. Pluralities say both Hochul, 46-39%, and Blakeman, 41-35%, are not ‘in touch with average New Yorkers.’ Voters say Hochul ‘gets things done,’ 47-39%, but are divided on Blakeman, 35-34%.”

Outside of the governor’s race, incumbent Attorney General Letitia James’s lead over challenger Saritha Komatireddy is down slightly from August’s 54-36% margin to 52-39% in the race for the state’s top prosecutor.

“Unless Komatireddy can find a way to get more known to likely voters in the next few weeks, it appears that James is in a strong position heading into the home stretch of the campaign,” Greenberg said.

In the comptroller’s race, incumbent Tom DiNapoli’s lead over challenger Joseph Hernandez of 56-33% changed only slightly from August’s 55-32% margin.

Likely voters were also asked about their opinions on Trump’s executive order renaming Lake Ontario as “Lake America.”

“Overall, nearly three-quarters of voters, 74%, oppose Trump’s renaming of Lake Ontario as Lake America. While 93% of Democrats and 76% of independents oppose the renaming of Lake Ontario, a plurality of Republicans supports the Lake America renaming, 48-41%,” Greenberg said. “It is strongly opposed upstate, 75-20%, and downstate, 76-18% in New York City and 70-20% in the downstate suburbs.”

Respondents also voiced their opposition to any new large data centers being built in their area of the state.

“When asked in August whether they thought Hochul’s one-year moratorium on new large data centers was the right or wrong policy for the state, by a two-to-one margin, 52-25%, voters said the moratorium was the right decision,” Greenberg said. “Now, an even larger majority, 63-25%, say they don’t want a new large data center built in their area of the state next year, after the moratorium expires. Three-quarters of Democrats and nearly two-thirds of independents are opposed, while Republicans are closely divided, narrowly supporting data centers in their area, 43-41%. At least 59% of voters from every region of the state oppose new data centers near them.”

Democrats’ lead on the generic congressional ballot fell from 54-38% in August to 51-40% in the latest poll.

A greater percentage of likely voters expressed their belief that the state is headed in the wrong direction, 49-38%, up from 47-43% in August, and, by a margin of 66-28%, they say the U.S. is headed in the wrong direction, up from 62-31% in August.

The poll was conducted Sept. 11-17 among 1,144 likely New York voters. It has an overall margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points for the sample that answered the entire survey and an overall margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points for the sample that answered the core questions.