NHL futures: Will Avs C Nathan MacKinnon win the Conn Smythe Trophy?

Even though the high-scoring Colorado Avalanche have a 2-0 lead in their 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs first-round series against the Los Angeles Kings, they have produced a total of just four goals. Nathan MacKinnon, who won the Maurice Richard Trophy with a career-high 53 goals and was finished third with 127 points during the 2025-26 NHL season, has recorded just one assist.

Despite the slow start to the postseason, MacKinnon is the early favorite for the Conn Smythe Trophy, which is given to the most valuable player of the playoffs. The 30-year-old center would join Joe Sakic (1996), Patrick Roy (2001) and current teammate Cale Makar (2022) as members of the Avalanche who have won the award.

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Also one of the leading candidates for the Hart Trophy as regular-season MVP, MacKinnon likely will need to pick it up offensively and have Colorado capture its second Stanley Cup in five years as only six players from non-championship teams have won the Conn Smythe since it was first handed out in 1965. The most recent to accomplish the feat is Edmonton Oilers captain Connor McDavid (2024), who is considered the second favorite for this year’s award by most of the major sportsbooks.

McDavid, who registered 138 points in 2025-26 to become the fourth player in NHL history to win the Art Ross Trophy at least six times, is a top contender for the Hart as well. Other players with odds lower than +2000 for the Conn Smythe after just four days of postseason action are Colorado defenseman Makar and goaltender Scott Wedgewood, Nikita Kucherov of the Tampa Bay Lightning and Carolina Hurricanes teammates Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis. 

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Kucherov (one goal, two assists) is the only member of that group that has registered three or more points thus far in the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs. David Pastrnak of the Boston Bruins leads the NHL in postseason scoring with five points (one goal, four assists) but is priced between +7500 and +9000 at the major sportsbooks.

NHL futures odds at the major sports betting sites see MacKinnon as the favorite to win the Conn Smythe Trophy, with odds in the +500 to +600 range. McDavid is the second favorite at BetMGM (+1200) and DraftKings (+1400), and he’s tied at Caesars (+1200) with Aho, who is the second favorite at FanDuel (+1600).

Pick: McDavid (+1700, FanDuel)

While it’s difficult to get a read on who will the Conn Smythe when teams have yet to play more than two games, I’m not ready to wager against the best player on the planet. Don’t read too much into the fact McDavid was kept off the scoresheet in the Oilers’ series-opening win against the Anaheim Ducks.

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McDavid failed to register a point in seven of his 25 games during the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs but finished with a league-high 42, which was 10 more than the next-closest player (Edmonton teammate Evan Bouchard), and took home the Conn Smythe even though the Oilers lost the Florida Panthers in the Stanley Cup Final in seven games. The superstar posted 12 multi-point performances that postseason, beginning with a five-point effort in Edmonton’s first-round opener against the Los Angeles Kings while adding back-to-back four-point outings versus Florida in the Final.

Last postseason, McDavid shared the league scoring lead of 33 points with teammate Leon Draisaitl. He recorded two or more points 11 times over 22 contests and posted a five-game multi-point streak that bridged the Western Conference Final and Stanley Cup Final.

McDavid also opened the 2025 NHL Playoffs with a bang as he collected four points in Game 1 of Edmonton’s first-round series, also against Los Angeles, so his goose egg versus Anaheim may have some concerned. But MacKinnon didn’t do much better in Colorado’s first two contests, and the Avalanche have quite a few more offensive weapons than the Oilers, so I’m fairly confident that McDavid will appear on the scoresheet with regularity as the team moves forward in its quest for a third consecutive trip to the Stanley Cup Final.

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