US Stock Market: SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic set stage for record-breaking IPO wave
Estimates from LPL Financial suggest the three companies could collectively add around $3 trillion in market value to the already large U.S. equity market, setting up a major test of investor appetite for high-growth technology stocks. These listings may represent one of the most significant moments for equity markets in the past decade.
A defining feature of these anticipated IPOs is the wide gap between valuation and financial fundamentals. In private markets, SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic are valued at levels comparable to established giants such as Meta and Palantir, yet they lack consistent profitability. Reuters highlighted that this disconnect raises important questions about how long investors will tolerate losses in exchange for growth potential.
SpaceX is reportedly targeting a valuation of about $1.75 trillion, which would make it the largest IPO ever, surpassing previous debuts by major tech firms. OpenAI is said to be seeking a valuation near $1 trillion, while Anthropic reached a valuation of approximately $380 billion in a recent funding round.
Financial disclosures reviewed by Reuters indicate that SpaceX generated more than $18.6 billion in revenue last year but recorded a loss of nearly $5 billion. OpenAI and Anthropic are also believed to be operating at a loss as they prepare for potential public offerings.
Despite these losses, the growth narrative remains compelling. SpaceX’s Starlink satellite internet business is widely seen as a transformative opportunity, even as the company invests heavily in artificial intelligence ventures and advanced rocket development. Meanwhile, OpenAI and Anthropic are positioned at the forefront of the AI boom, with their products gaining widespread adoption in both consumer and enterprise markets.
The broader market context further explains investor enthusiasm. A small group of technology companies has dominated gains in the S&P 500 in recent years, reflecting strong earnings growth and market leadership. This concentration has been driven by consistent profitability and reinvestment potential among leading firms, something the new entrants have yet to demonstrate.Profitability will also play a critical role in determining whether these companies can be included in major indices. S&P Dow Jones Indices requires companies to post four consecutive quarters of profit and maintain at least a year of public trading before being considered for inclusion in the S&P 500. Without meeting these criteria, SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic could miss out on the automatic inflows generated by index-tracking funds.
Although Nasdaq has indicated it may accelerate inclusion of large-cap newcomers into the Nasdaq-100, the S&P 500 remains the more influential benchmark due to the sheer size of assets linked to it. Any delay in meeting profitability requirements could therefore limit institutional demand in the early years after listing.
Analysts cited by Reuters caution that the eventual inclusion of companies of this scale could further concentrate market power within a handful of technology firms. At the same time, historical patterns suggest that not all early leaders in emerging technologies maintain their dominance over the long term, reinforcing the importance of diversification for investors.
As these IPOs approach, the central question will be whether investors continue to prioritise growth and innovation over profitability, or whether financial discipline becomes the crucial factor in sustaining valuations of this magnitude.
